According to BMI, research arm of Fitch Ratings, Ghana’s long-term growth outlook in the automotive industry remains stable despite some pressures on the economy.
“We forecast Ghana's first registrations of vehicles including new and used vehicles to expand by 2.8 percent in 2018 to reach 49,196 units registered annually and remain stable over our 2018-2021 forecast period with average annual growth of 2.5 period over this period. This stable growth expected over our forecast period follows a period of sustained poor performance in Ghana's automotive industry since the 2008 financial crisis, when registrations contracted 5.4 percent on average over 2009-2016.”
It said Ghana’s real GDP will grow by 7.5 percent in 2018, up from an estimated 6.8 percent in 2017. This robust growth it emphasized will provide a solid foundation to support a stable nascent recovery in first registrations of
It added that Ghana's first registrations of vehicles will generate a nascent recovery in 2018, and remain stable over the forecast period as macroeconomic headwinds ease. The improving economic “outlook it believes will support growth in client loans and ultimately provide a solid foundation for future growth in Ghana's automotive industry”
Macroeconomic Fundamentals To Ease
BMI’s Country Risk team also believes that average inflation and the central bank policy rate will ease from an expected rate of 12 percent and 20 percent respectively in 2017 to a forecasted period low of 6.5 percent and 12 percent respectively by the end of 2021.
This it believes will ease pressure on consumers and benefit the demand for vehicles, as consumers and businesses obtain credit more easily and vehicles become more affordable over the long term.
The country’s GDP expanded 9.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, due to growth in the industrial sector. The figure represented a 0.3 percent increment from what was recorded in the previous quarter.